What would the spread have been with Wentz starting for the Eagles? Likely Eagles minus six. This factors in the Eagles being at home, the bye, extra rest, and most importantly, them having had a much better season than the Falcons.
Is Carson Wentz worth the nine point swing in the betting line? No! When Aaron Rodgers, the Packers star QB went out, lines moved nine points. Rodgers is better than Wentz and the Packers backup Brett Hundley is worse than the Eagles serviceable backup Nick Foles.
So why are the Falcons a three point favourite? Over-reaction and history. The betting public just saw the Falcons beat-up the Rams on the road. They now also remember the Falcons went to the Super Bowl last year and have a savvy veteran QB. The Eagles were mediocre since Foles replaced Wentz. Add it all up and the bettors are bullish the Falcons and shorting the Eagles.
However, the Sharp Edge Approach is clear – fade the public and don’t anchor on recent events. Big picture: the Eagles had a strong season with a balanced attack and solid defence. They gave up less points than the Falcons did this year (something that has nothing to do with the QB). They are playing at home on two weeks rest, while the Falcons have just under a week and need to travel across the country to play.
Digging deeper the Eagles +3 at home seem to be the value play for this weekend’s NFL playoff games.
Source:: Toronto Sun – Movies