NFL value bets: Week five

My NFL picks went 1-1-1 against the spread again last week and my Sharp Edge Picks are now 6-4-1 for the season.

The week 5 value bets:

Indy +10.5 (TNF): 10+ pts is a HUGE line in the parity filled NFL and taking big dogs is usually value.   The Colts were in control of last game until the end, while the Patriots finally had a big week, crushing the Dolphins.   These two factors moved this line from 8 to 10.5 and it is too high.

Falcons +3.5Atlanta has an amazing offence but their defence is weak.   Pittsburgh has the exact same situation.   There is often value in small road underdogs, especially in close matchups were you are getting more than 3 points.   Home teams win games with these spreads by exactly  3 points over 9% of the time and when they do you win with the underdog Falcons.   Good value spot.

Raiders +5: another small road underdog getting more than 3 pts.   The Chargers are likely better, but only marginally.   They don’t deserve any value for playing at home in a half filled stadium and the Raiders are good enough to make this at least close more than half the time.

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Source:: Toronto Sun – Movies