In this day and age where the betting stats are scrutinized as closely as some of the actual game data, it’s interesting to see how what is widely referred to as “the public” fares vs. the point spread. The excellent gambling site, covers.com has been tracking it throughout the season and has classified public plays as those with over 60% of the bets. Those generally square selections are a miserable 10-23 against the spread so far this season. Over the past four weeks, it’s even worse with a 5-19 mark vs. the spread. The lesson? If it sounds too good to be true, it most likely is.
-A couple of tough road losses was about all it took to get the public off off the Miami Dolphins, it seems. The Fish return home to face the Bears and are 3.5-point home dogs. Sure, the Bears are rested, but it also sounds like some over-compensation.
-We get that if he’s on his game, DeShaun Watson can cover the point spread almost single-handedly, but the Texans as double-digit favourites over the Bills is an interesting line to say the least. Yes, the Bills have been inconsistent, but teams with a losing record who are double-digit favourites generally don’t have decent records vs. the spread.
-Even more confusing with this line? The Texans haven’t exactly been an ATM, going 1-9 vs. the spread in their past 10.
-The marquee matchup of the Week is undoubtedly the Sunday night tilt from Foxboro where the Patriots are 3.5 point favourites over the undefeated Chiefs. That sounds like about three points for home field advantage and a half point because linemakers see the Patriots as being back in form. Of note, since 2016, the Patriots have a profitable mark of 17-6 vs. the spread at Gillette Stadium. That record is 9-2 over the past 11 home dates.
-Can snow in the forecast and the altitude slow down the high-flying Rams when they visit Denver on Sunday? Fitting of their record — and that seemingly unstoppable offence — the Rams are seven-point road favourites.
-The magical run of the Browns has to end some time, right? Or does it? The Browns are once again home underdogs — by a point to the L.A. Chargers. In theory, Phillip Rivers and company should roll over the Browns, but the West Coast to East Coast angle is also working against them.
-The Vikings have been vulnerable as big favourites (see Week 2 vs. the Bills) so what to do with them this week where they are 10.5-point favourites over a poor Arizona team.
Source:: Toronto Sun – Movies